Saturday, June 25, 2011

According to the energy widget we're screwed

I have this energy widget from Oilprice.com at the bottom of the page that tells you how much energy major countries consume during the year in billion BTUs.  I check it once in awhile to get up my self-righteous ire at the fact that the US is the number one consumer of fossil fuels (then, of course, I remember that I contribute to that enormous number) - but not anymore!  For the first time since I first put this widget on the blog, China has surpassed the US in energy consumption.  I'm not sure what to feel about that - relieved that we're no longer number one?  No, that's not it.  It's something in the range between discomfort and mild horror. 

Google "china surpasses us in energy consumption" and you get stuff like this:

"The BP publication shows that China accounted for 20.3 per cent of consumption, surpassing the US, with a 19 per cent share of the global total.
Consumption growth reached 5.6 per cent last year and demand for all forms of energy grew strongly, said BP, with energy consumption in both mature OECD economies and non-OECD countries growing at above-average rates as the economic recovery gathered pace."
This is a quote from the Financial Times reported on NPR - the basis comes from a report given at the beginning of the month by BP officials.  Another story from the Times-Picayune makes the case that US isn't up to the task of meeting natural gas demands as had been originally predicted, and that's not all:
As analysts predict that months-long interruptions in Libyan oil supplies could drive up oil even further, Finley said production has not increased by a significant enough volume to offset the decrease in supplies. He said production needs to increase by about 1 million barrels a day to keep the oil market in balance over the second half of this year.
Saudi Arabia, it's on you, man, so step it up.

2 comments:

Bukko Boomeranger said...

Have you ever read "Twilight in the Desert" by Matt Simmons, an expert in oil finance? It was one of the early Peak Oil books. He makes a good case that Saudi Arabia doesn't have the capacity to produce enough to bail out the West (and he put out the book in 2005, before communist China had reached the energy ascendancy it has today.) We're all screwed. Get ready for an "energy descent." Back to the future -- 1850s lifestyle, here we come! Unfortunately, that means 1850s human population numbers, too. Long way to fall, and the scary part is how we arrive at those numbers from the numbers we have today...

Mistressmybae said...

Just put that book and Eaarth: Making a Life on a Tough New Planet by Bill Mckibben on hold at the library - yay! More summer reading!

I posted a little on Peak Oil last year around this time and I'm really glad I got McKibben's podcast "Earth to Humans: Enough Already" to help bring me down from this frenzy about the issue of when our fuel runs out. Because, at this point, it's not a matter of "if" but "when" and we just have to face the fact that we're going to be living a lot smaller than we have in the previous two generations. And that's okay. It's not okay for our world community to be completely dependent on fossil fuels, and we will, once again, learn our lessons the hard way.

Besides, in reference to your comment about "1850's lifestyle," I've learned a lot from working at the 1870's Living History Farm at Morninside! Things like, "it takes all morning to make lunch," and then, "it takes all afternoon to make dinner" (I'm extrapolating because I only stay in the 1870's until lunchtime).

My hope is it won't be as bad as the Peak Oilers are thinking; we'll just be a lot less mobile and will be more local of necessity.